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May 22, 2009

Despite Slump, Cos. Not Abandoning Earnings Guidance

Despite the tough economic environment, most companies haven’t abandoned earnings guidance, but some have made tweaks to how they provide that guidance, according to a study by the National Investor Relations Institute.

Among 515 public company NIRI members surveyed in April, 60 percent say their company provides earnings guidance (earnings per share). That’s compared to 64 percent in 2008.

Of that group, 82 percent provide other financial guidance, such as revenue, cash flow, EBITDA, or operating income, off slightly from 86 percent last year. Fifty-five percent provide non-financial guidance, compared to 57 percent in 2008, while one-quarter of respondents provide all three types of guidance.

Among those that provide earnings guidance, the vast majority (84 percent) say they do so to ensure that sell-side consensus and market expectations are reasonable.

NIRI President and CEO Jeff Morgan say the survey results signal that “companies understand that communicating with investors in challenging times is as important, if not more so, than it is in good times.” However, Morgan says companies may need to adjust their message in order to provide the most accurate picture possible in the current environment.

Meanwhile, the survey results show companies have made some changes in their guidance practices. Most respondents (42 percent) now provide earnings guidance as a range of greater than 5 percent, up slightly from the 38 percent that did so in 2008.

That’s a shift from last year, when the most popular response was a range of less than 5 percent—cited by 45 percent in 2008. This year, however, only 32 percent provide guidance as a range of less than 5 percent, which NIRI says may be attributable to the difficult economy and thus more challenging forecasting environment.

For companies providing other financial guidance, a range of less than 5 percent was still the most popular response, at 26 percent compared to 38 percent last year. Twenty-two percent selected a range of greater than 5 percent this year, versus 24 percent in 2008.

Among those who say they don’t provide earnings guidance, the most commonly cited reasons included: focus on long-term company performance (43 percent); low earnings visibility (41 percent); and management philosophy (41 percent).

Among those who said their company provided earnings guidance in the past, but discontinued doing so, the most common reasons cited were a change in visibility/forecasting ability of business, cited by 64 percent, and a senior management decision (62 percent).

Since discontinuing their earnings guidance, 45 percent of respondents say the spread of analysts estimates has widened, while 39 percent say there’s been no appreciable change, and 11 percent say it’s too soon to tell. Only 3 percent say the spread has narrowed.

Posted by: maguilar @ 1:14 pm

Filed under: Earnings guidance

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