If filing patterns for 2008 year-end financial statements hold steady, an increasing number of accelerated filers listed on major stock exchanges will get audit opinions expressing doubts about their ability to continue as going concerns.

According to analysis of going concern opinions filed by auditors for previous years and for early 2008 results, Audit Analytics says 23 percent of all 2008 audit opinions for publicly listed entities will say there’s a question about whether the entity will still be in business a year later. To boot, a larger-than-usual number of those audit opinions will be handed out to major entities listed on major exchanges, according to the research firm.

Don Whalen, director of research for Audit Analytics, says the firm studied going concern opinions back to the beginning of the decade. The data show going concern opinions have increased steadily since 2004, with 3,293 registrants getting the red flag in 2007. The firm analyzed patterns from prior years and applied those patterns to 2008 filings to date to conclude that 2008’s total number of going concerns could reach nearly 3,600.

The majority of going-concern opinions typically go to over-the-counter and non-tickered entities, said Whalen, so they include smaller entities or those securing public debt. In 2008, however, a larger share of going-concern opinions likely will go to entities traded on the major exchanges, including the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, and Amex, he says.

In all of 2007, for example, only 10 NYSE-listed entities received a going-concern opinion, but for 2008, the number already sits at 18, Whalen notes. On Nasdaq, 66 entities received the going-concern opinion in 2007 while for 2008, 72 have been flagged.

The analysis of 2008 filings so far generally focuses on accelerated filers who operate on a calendar year, says Whalen. Data for non-accelerated filers and non-U.S. filers won’t be available for at least a few more months, he said. “About half the filings for 2008 are in,” he adds.

Auditors have been bracing for some tough decisions around the going-concern question, given dramatic economic decline and illiquidity that are straining corporate resources. Audit regulators have warned auditors to take a close look at companies’ ability to remain in business and advise investors accordingly.

Even so, the numbers aren’t terribly surprising to Whalen. “When you look at the history, even in 2003, the best year in the decade, 15 percent received a going concern assumption,” he says. “If you look at it historically, it’s almost what you’d expect. It looks a little alarming when you see how many registrants really are fragile companies.”