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Sorting Through Probabilities, Possibilities For 2006

Harvey L. Pitt | January 3, 2006

Over 500 years ago, while anchored off the coast of Jamaica, Columbus found his food supplies running low, but locals were unwilling to sell him any more. Planning ahead, Columbus noticed that his almanac predicted a lunar eclipse a few days later. On the day of the anticipated eclipse, Columbus warned the leaders that he would blot out the moon that very evening, if he was refused the opportunity to purchase more food. The locals reiterated their position. But that evening, as the eclipse began, they sought out Columbus in a state of high anxiety and extracted an agreement from him to cease their lunar deprivation in return for the sale of food supplies. Columbus's quick thinking afforded him the opportunity to stave off starvation and ruin, but better foresight and planning might
have obviated the need for deceit.

For many companies, the ability to look ahead and plan accordingly is a very difficult task: it requires focus and...

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